Election metrics | Analysing exit polls, Election , 2014 lok sabha election updates
The polls that have been published so far are trying to make judgements based on people’s opinions almost a year ahead of the general election.
Polling in India is a hard business for several reasons. First, the country is politically fragmented. We have a large number of regional parties, whose influence is restricted to certain states or even parts of states. Then, even if two regions see battles between the same parties, elections there are more often than not likely to be fought on different issues. Finally, and most importantly, we have a first-past-the-post system combined with multi-cornered contests, which makes predictions difficult.
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