Election metrics | Analysing exit polls, Election , 2014 lok sabha election updates, Lok sabha election 2014, Exit poll, 2014 election , latest news.

Election metrics | Analysing exit polls, Election , 2014 lok sabha election updates

The polls that have been published so far are trying to make judgements based on people’s opinions almost a year ahead of the general election.

Polling in India is a hard business for several reasons. First, the country is politically fragmented. We have a large number of regional parties, whose influence is restricted to certain states or even parts of states. Then, even if two regions see battles between the same parties, elections there are more often than not likely to be fought on different issues. Finally, and most importantly, we have a first-past-the-post system combined with multi-cornered contests, which makes predictions difficult.

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Lok Sabha election opinion exit poll, Lok Sabha ELECTION SURVEY RESULT , who will win in Lok Sabha polls 2014, exit poll, Lok Sabha Opinion Poll 2014, Lok Sabha Opinion poll result 2014, Lok Sabha assembly election expected win.

Lok Sabha election opinion exit poll.

The UPA government, adrift at the centre, would like to advance the 2014 Lok Sabha election to October-November 2013.

That would serve three purposes.

One, avoid the electoral blowback of four likely successive state assembly defeats in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi. Two, give the BJP less time to sort out its Narendra Modi-as-PM-candidate dilemma. And three, nip Mulayam Singh Yadav's Third Front idea in the bud.

Time, however, is not on the UPA’s side. While the SP and BSP, enmeshed in corruption, communalism and casteism, can be counted on for rancid, day-to-day support, the Congress too needs time to gain full electoral benefit from its cash transfer scheme and food security bill.

Election tracker: Jaya leads in TN, Cong in Karnataka, Andhra divided, Congress, BJP, Opinion Poll Predict by CNN-IBN ,Opinion Poll, Exit Poll, ELECTION SURVEY RESULT, politics updates, latest and breaking news.

Election tracker: Jaya leads in TN, Cong in Karnataka, Andhra divided.

Political battles in the southern states have traditionally been between the Congress and regional parties except in Tamil Nadu where the grand old party of India has been reduced to one of the also-rans.

 

On the other hand the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after a spectacular rise in Karnataka has been struggling to make a mark and it is almost non-existent in other states.

According to a CSDS-CNN-IBN survey in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka the ruling parties in the respective states are sitting pretty. But the survey reveals that in Andhra Pradesh the Congress, which had swept the state in 2009, is facing a tough time over Telangana and the rise of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress.

 

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